Black Sea attacks continue to disrupt food shipping

As an important global food exporting region, the Black Sea bears a significant proportion of global exports of wheat and corn. Russia and Ukraine together account for 27.3% of global exports of wheat and 12.2% of global exports of corn. The smoothness of regional shipping has a profound impact on the global agricultural trade pattern. Since July this year, attacks on ports, grain terminals, and merchant ships along the Black Sea have continued to escalate, coinciding with the peak season for grain harvest and export, directly impacting the traditional maritime export links between the two countries.

The damage to port infrastructure is the core cause of the current export obstruction. Data shows that in July alone, Ukrainian port facilities suffered 67 attacks, targeting core port areas such as Odessa, directly destroying about one-third of Ukraine's food export capacity. The Kerch Strait and the Azov Don River waterway are restricted, affecting the transportation path of 28% of Russia's wheat exports; The southern grain terminals such as Novorossiysk have been attacked multiple times, forcing a large amount of grain cargo flow to turn to alternative terminals. According to institutional estimates, approximately 1.7-2.1 million tons of grain in Russia are at risk of transportation from July to August, and Ukraine also has about 500000 tons of wheat that cannot be shipped from Black Sea ports on schedule.

Due to restrictions on port operations, the actual export volume of wheat from both countries has significantly declined. Ukraine's wheat exports in July were only 935300 tons, a significant decrease from June's 1.6 million tons; From mid July to mid August, the cumulative export volume was 1.29 million tons, which was 1.52 million tons lower than the same period last year. Russia's wheat exports in July fell to 1.6 million tons, a significant decline from the same period last year's 2.1 million tons. Institutions estimate that the export volume in August will be 3-3.4 million tons, far below the 4.5 million tons level in August 2025. On the market side, the price of Black Sea wheat showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In mid July, due to supply concerns, the price surged to $236.75 per metric ton. With the improvement of new crop yields and weakened import demand, it fell back to $215 per metric ton on August 20th.

Corn exports also experienced a contraction. Ukraine exported 1.17 million tons of corn in July, far lower than 1.95 million tons in June. From mid July to mid August, the cumulative export volume was only 1.4 million tons, and the export volume in the first half of August was less than half of the same period last year. The main channel of the Black Sea is blocked, and a large amount of grain is stranded domestically. Ukraine is facing severe storage pressure, and the agricultural sector warns that if the export slump continues, there may be a shortage of 8-11 million tons of grain storage in the country. At present, alternative channels such as Danube River shipping, western land ports, and Constanta Port in Romania can divert some cargo volume, but the overall capacity is limited, making it difficult to fully compensate for the production capacity loss of the Black Sea main port.

For foreign trade enterprises engaged in the import and export of agricultural products, the uncertainty of the Black Sea waterway has become a supply chain variable that must be taken seriously. The stability of the traditional Black Sea direct transportation scheme has declined, and the cargo flow has shifted to alternative terminals and land river intermodal routes, resulting in practical problems such as longer transit cycles and increased overall logistics costs. Enterprises need to abandon their original fixed time expectations, fully assess the risks of shipping routes, prepare multiple source alternative and multi-path logistics plans, and avoid losses caused by delays in shipping schedules and transit delays.

The global grain trade pattern has also undergone new changes as a result, and some international buyers have shifted their purchasing focus to other grain producing areas such as South America. The progress of the recovery of Black Sea ports and the evolution of regional security situation will continue to affect the pace of international food circulation and the trend of commodity prices, which is worthy of continuous tracking and attention by the industry.

END

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reading reference only, and the specific results are subject to relevant regulations and local administrative authorities' judgments. If there are any dynamic adjustments, please refer to the official explanations and releases of domestic and foreign regulatory agencies. If there is any infringement or question about copyright, please contact us by email admin@mbs-gz.com We will delete it as soon as possible, thank you.