Escalation of Shipping Crisis in the Middle East: Dual Impacts of Hormuz and Red Sea

I.Hormuz Strait Access Disrupted, Tanker Transportation Halted

On February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran issued a radio warning ordering that no vessels be allowed to pass through the Hormuz Strait. This news triggered a chain reaction: major global oil companies and energy traders suspended tanker transits through the strait, and the governments of several European countries advised oil tankers flying their national flags en route to refrain from entering the strait for the time being. As a vital artery for crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, the Hormuz Strait handles approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade. The disruption to navigation has left this critical channel facing an unprecedented standstill in transportation.

II.Houthi Rebels Signal Resumption of Attacks, Red Sea Situation Takes New Twist

Reported by the Associated Press on February 28, two senior officials of the Yemeni Houthi rebels stated their decision to resume missile and drone strikes on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and may launch attacks targeting Israeli objectives once again. The Houthis had previously suspended strikes on Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets, and the latest signal of resumption is seen as a positional adjustment amid evolving regional tensions. If the attacks resume, the risk level of the Red Sea-Aden Gulf shipping lane will be raised once more, creating a dual impact alongside the tense situation in the Hormuz Strait.

III.Attacks Reported! Middle Eastern Ports Suspended, Shipping Companies Halt Bookings

Following the joint military strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Hormuz Strait, delivering a severe blow to the global shipping system. Multiple ports have suspended operations or face operational restrictions, and shipping companies have announced a halt to new cargo bookings bound for the Middle East worldwide.

The Jebel Ali Port in the United Arab Emirates was struck by falling debris from an aerial interception operation, which sparked a fire at one berth and led to the full suspension of the port's operations. Oman's Duqm Port was targeted by two drones, resulting in the suspension of operations at Duqm Port and the Asyad Dry Dock. Bahrain has also announced the temporary suspension of all port operations nationwide.

IV.Shipping Companies Urgently Adjust Routes and Adopt Diversion Measures

In response to the escalating tensions in the Hormuz Strait and the Red Sea, major global shipping companies have promptly activated emergency response mechanisms and adjusted their routes to avoid risks.

Germany's Hapag-Lloyd announced the suspension of its vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait. France's CMA CGM ordered all vessels in the Persian Gulf and those bound for the region to proceed to safe waters and stand by, while adjusting relevant shipping routes. Maersk has implemented diversion plans for some Middle East routes, with its ME11 and MECL routes to sail around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through Red Sea waters. Japan's three major shipping companies—NYK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line)—have also instructed their vessels to stand by in safe areas or suspend transits through the strait. MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company), a global shipping giant, announced the suspension of all new cargo bookings bound for the Middle East worldwide.

Diverting around the Cape of Good Hope typically adds about 10 to 14 days to the voyage for Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast routes, which will lead to longer transportation cycles, higher fuel costs, and worsening schedule disruptions. In the absence of alternative seaborne shipping channels in the short term, supply chains need to prepare for the normalcy of year-round diversions around Africa.

V.Impacts on Global Trade

The closure has created a critical bottleneck for the energy market and container transportation. Major hub ports such as Jebel Ali have effectively been cut off from global connections, leaving vessels in the Persian Gulf unable to sail out and no new vessels able to enter.

Shipping lines may opt to unload cargo at ports in other regions and then complete final delivery via land transportation. Shippers will face longer transportation cycles, higher fuel costs, and increasingly severe schedule disruptions. With no alternative seaborne channels available in the short term, supply chains must prepare for the long-term normalization of diverting around Africa.

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