Escalation of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict: Global Logistics System Faces Severe Impact

In early March 2026, the conflict triggered by the US-Israel military strikes against Iran continued to escalate. Logistics hubs in the Middle East were nearly completely paralyzed, and the world's two core logistics channels, maritime and air transport, suffered the most severe disruptions in years. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz came to a standstill, and airspace in multiple countries was closed. The chain reaction is gradually spreading to the global logistics network.

I.Paralysis of Maritime Core Channels, Significant Reduction in Global Shipping Capacity

As a vital passage for global oil and shipping, the Strait of Hormuz has come to a complete standstill due to the passage warning issued by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The daily traffic volume, which was usually around 100 ships, dropped to a negligible number after the conflict. On March 1, the traffic volume was only 44 ship - times, a sharp decline of 64.5% compared to before the conflict.

According to the latest statistics from Clarkson, a well - known British ship - broking company, currently 3,200 ships are trapped in the Gulf, accounting for about 4% of the global shipping capacity. Among them, there are over 100 container ships and 112 crude oil tankers. Additionally, 500 ships are waiting to enter the strait on its eastern side, including empty oil tankers urgently needed for production in Gulf countries.

Affected by the situation, leading global container shipping companies such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag - Lloyd have announced the suspension of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and have stopped accepting new bookings for all Middle East cargo. Most ships are now choosing to sail around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, which directly increases the transportation time by 10 - 14 days. Shipping companies have imposed additional fees ranging from $1,500 to $4,000 in response to this situation.

On March 2, the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) and the Joint Negotiating Group officially designated the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters as a high - risk area. They clearly stated that seafarers have the right to refuse to enter the area and launched enhanced protection measures for seafarers. Due to the threat of Iran "burning passing ships" and the lack of war risk insurance, except for a few shipowners with high risk - bearing capacity, Western shipowners generally choose to wait and see. More than 150 very large crude carriers are anchored off the coast of Fujairah Port in the UAE. Even though the United States plans to provide alternative war risk guarantees, ships in the Gulf region have not resumed normal navigation.

The operation of Middle East ports has also been severely hit. After being attacked, Oman's ports have suspended operations, and several ports in India have announced the suspension of some export businesses. Only Colombo Port has temporarily become a regional shipping "safe haven". Shipping analysts point out that the suspension of cargo transportation in the Gulf region has caused congestion in some overseas container ports. Containers destined for the Middle East have been forced to stay or be transferred to sub - optimal destinations such as Jeddah Port and King Abdullah Port, further occupying the global container ship capacity and pushing up spot freight rates.

II.Closure of Airspace in Multiple Countries, Large - scale Disruption of Air Transport Network

In the air transport sector, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and several Gulf countries such as the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have widely closed their airspace, severely hindering the global air cargo and passenger transport networks. Core international aviation hubs in the Middle East, such as Dubai International Airport, Abu Dhabi Airport, and Doha Airport, have temporarily suspended operations due to retaliatory strikes. Among them, Dubai International Airport was affected by the falling debris intercepted by the air defense system, with some facilities in the terminal building damaged and tens of thousands of passengers stranded. Although some services have resumed as of March 2, the scale of operations has been significantly reduced.

Airlines have adjusted their operation plans one after another. The three major Middle Eastern airlines, Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways, have collectively suspended flights at their core hubs, and their cargo departments have imposed temporary restrictions on new bookings. PAL and Cebu Pacific have canceled or rerouted multiple flights to core Middle Eastern cities. European and American airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways have directly announced the suspension of services to the Middle East until at least mid - March.

International freight service providers have also been affected. FedEx has officially announced the suspension of pickup and delivery services in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE, stating that the transportation time for cargo in other markets in the Middle East will be significantly extended. It said, "The safety of our team members is our top priority, and the resumption time will be announced separately."

III.The Conflict Continues to Ferment, Hidden Dangers Remain in the Global Logistics Crisis

In the early morning of March 4 local time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of the 16th wave of the "True Promise - 4" strike operation, launching missile and drone attacks on targets in central and northern Israel. The unstable situation in the Middle East has further expanded. Clarkson and several shipping analysts said that the shipping disruption caused by the conflict in the Gulf region has just begun. Issues such as port suspension of berthing, cancellation of cargo bookings, and long - term route diversion will have a continuous secondary impact on the global shipping industry.

For the liner shipping industry, although the Gulf region is not a core market, the consumption of ton - mile shipping capacity caused by route diversion and the occupation of shipping capacity due to port congestion will still drive global freight rates to continue to rise. For the global supply chain, the disruption of logistics channels in the Middle East has hindered regional cargo flow, and the impact is gradually spreading to surrounding markets such as Southeast Asia and India. The stability of the global logistics system is facing a severe test.

Currently, the US - Israel - Iran conflict is still ongoing. There are no signs of relief in the shipping deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz and the operational fluctuations of Middle Eastern airports. The global logistics industry is facing a continuous crisis of uncertainty, and the subsequent development still requires close attention to the changes in the situation.

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