New Rules for Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran Tensions Escalate

On March 30, 2026 local time, Iran made a major announcement: it plans to implement an access permit and toll system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, modeled after international waterways such as the Suez Canal and Panama Canal. This move, compounded by the already tense situation in the Middle East, has drawn intense attention from global shipping, energy, and financial markets, further escalating the standoff between the United States and Iran.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated that amid a complex international security environment and external threats, Iran is evaluating the establishment of a new strait management system, which includes strict access rules and the collection of transit and related service fees. He emphasized that Iran has long provided preferential or even free passage conditions for shipping in this area, and the current situation makes it necessary to reassess this arrangement. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani also confirmed that some vessels have recently passed through the strait smoothly after coordinating with Iranian authorities, adding that the root cause of current transit restrictions is the escalation of regional conflicts, not Iran's initiative to close the waterway.

Iran's proposal has quickly triggered strong opposition and a tough response from the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear that the United States will never allow Iran to "permanently control the Strait of Hormuz and establish a toll system," stating that Washington plans to finalize military action targets against Iran within weeks while pushing for diplomatic negotiations through third parties, and has prepared for the failure of talks. U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that although U.S.-Iran consultations have "made significant progress," if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term and normal navigation through the strait is not restored, the United States may strike key Iranian infrastructure including power plants, oil wells, and the important energy hub of Kharg Island.

In the face of U.S. military threats, Iran has also taken a tough stance. The head of Iran's National Development Fund stated that Iran's power grid is widely distributed and cannot be completely destroyed; if attacked, Iran has the capability to plunge the entire region into widespread blackouts. Additionally, Iran warned that countries supporting U.S. and Israeli actions may pay a corresponding price in the future.

The maritime security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has also shown subtle changes. According to a report from the Combined Maritime Forces, the overall risk in the strait and the Persian Gulf remains high, but electronic signal interference that severely disrupted ship positioning systems has significantly weakened, and the positions of stranded vessels are becoming clearer, alleviating concerns among shipowners and insurance institutions to some extent. Data shows that since March 20, Iran has not launched new attacks on merchant ships, with a total of 21 confirmed maritime incidents and attacks recorded previously. However, a defense and security research expert at the University of Western Australia pointed out that uncertainties in strait transit remain high, and safety hazards from distorted navigation data persist. In extreme cases, some vessels are even advised to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) and navigate visually, significantly increasing operational difficulty and risk costs for shipping.

Notably, transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely suspended due to the tense situation. Trump revealed that Iran has implemented "selective clearance" for Pakistani-flagged oil tankers, increasing the number of passages from an initial 10 to 20, demonstrating Iran's strategic flexibility in strait control. Analysts believe that the current situation between the U.S., Iran, and the Middle East presents a typical cycle of "pressure—easing." While the United States continues to exert pressure militarily and diplomatically, pressure on energy prices and financial markets has created a realistic need for all parties to promote de-escalation.

As a "chokepoint" for global shipping and energy transportation, Iran's proposed strait toll system not only reaffirms its geopolitical strategic position but, if implemented, could reshape the global shipping cost structure. Shipping companies will face new compliance, cost, and insurance pressures, and global energy transportation prices may experience further volatility. Against the backdrop of an uncertain conflict trajectory and undetermined new rules, this world's most important energy corridor stands at a highly sensitive and uncertain crossroads. Its future trajectory will directly impact the global trade and shipping landscape.

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