The spillover of the energy crisis in the Middle East has ushered in the "darkest moment" for global aviation

The energy crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East is spreading across the board, and European aviation fuel inventories are in short supply. International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol issued a heavy warning on April 16th: European aviation fuel inventories are at their lowest level in three years, with only about six weeks of usage remaining; If the supply of crude oil from the Middle East continues to be disrupted, there will be large-scale flight cancellations in Europe by the end of May, directly impacting today's headlines during the summer tourism season. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has simultaneously confirmed that the shortage of aviation fuel in Europe has shifted from a warning to a real risk. Multiple airports have initiated fuel rationing, forcing airlines to reduce capacity and raise fares. Cross border logistics costs and timeliness have completely collapsed on China Economic Network International Channel.

The root cause of the crisis lies directly in the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East: the Strait of Hormuz carries 30% of global crude oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas transportation, and is the core channel for 75% of Europe's aviation oil imports. After Iran reopened the comprehensive blockade of the strait on April 18th, the supply chain of crude oil and aviation fuel from the Persian Gulf to Europe was almost broken, and alternative supplies (from the United States and West Africa) could only fill about 50% of the gap, unable to reverse the shortage trend. According to IEA calculations, if the substitution rate is less than 50%, European aviation fuel inventories will fall below the 23 day safety warning line in June, causing physical supply disruptions at airports and inevitable flight suspensions; Even if the substitution rate increases to 75%, it will still reach the warning line in August.

The European aviation industry has entered an emergency response mode: Bologna Airport in Italy has taken the lead in implementing a single aircraft fuel limit of 2000 liters; Lufthansa, Scandinavian Airlines, and others have suspended old aircraft models ahead of schedule, reduced capacity by 10% -20%, and directly grounded some regional and short haul routes; Air France, KLM and other airlines have raised fuel surcharges for long-distance routes, resulting in a one-way ticket price increase of over 500 euros. IATA Director General Willie Walsh has warned that Europe will experience a "wave of flight suspensions" starting from the end of May, with popular tourist destinations such as Spain, France, and Italy bearing the brunt. Summer travel and cross-border freight will be completely blocked.

Note: The image is sourced from Visual China

The crisis has spread to cross-border logistics and global supply chains: the cost of air freight has skyrocketed by 50% -70%, and the proportion of high efficiency electronic products, medical supplies, and cross-border e-commerce small package freight to the value of goods has exceeded 30%. A large number of orders have been forced to be transferred to sea freight, but sea freight is also affected by the dual blockade of the Red Sea and Hormuz, forming a dilemma of "expensive air freight and slow sea freight". Inflation pressure in Europe has further intensified, and the space for central bank interest rate cuts has been compressed. Expectations for global trade and aviation industry recovery have been significantly lowered.

The European Union is urgently formulating plans for aviation fuel allocation and emergency supply, but until the geopolitical conflict subsides, the risk of aviation fuel shortages and flight suspensions in Europe will continue for at least three months, and the "darkest moment" for global aviation and cross-border logistics has just begun.

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